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Why The Polls Understate Romney Vote
Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing! Here’s why:
1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.
In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. That’s because some don’t have landlines or are rarely at home or don’t speak English well enough to be interviewed or don’t have time to talk. Elderly are overstated because they tend to be home and to have time. So you need to increase the weight given to interviews with young people, blacks and Latinos and count those with seniors a bit less.
Normally, this task is not difficult. Over the years, the black, Latino, young, and elderly proportion of the electorate has been fairly constant from election to election, except for a gradual increase in the Hispanic vote. You just need to look back at the last election to weight your polling numbers for this one.
But 2008 was no ordinary election. Blacks, for example, usually cast only 11% of the vote, but, in 2008, they made up 14% of the vote. Latinos increased their share of the vote by 1.5% and college kids almost doubled their vote share. Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and 2004 turnouts in determining his sample. That’s why his data usually is better for Romney.
But polling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.
If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality.
Xavier
September 23rd, 2012
Yesterday Granny said, “Polls don’t mean anything. If they did, we wouldn’t have elections. We’d just set a date to stop polling and the person in the lead would take office.”
serfer62
September 23rd, 2012
Of course Carter beat Reagon as the polls indicated…oh, wait
dba_ vagabond_ trader
September 23rd, 2012
Yeah, the poll bombardment is krap. I’m more concerned about big swing states like Ohio.
chiefillinicake
September 23rd, 2012
I was talking to my Mom yesterday, and she said that people kept calling her to talk about politics, but she said she refused to do so “because her politics are none of their damn business”.
Trust me, Mom ain’t voting for Obama.
How many of these folks are out there? I’m guessing a bunch. It was considered impolite for many years to discuss politics or religion, especially with strangers.
I think the polls are pure bullshit. I’m sure Mom agrees.
AbigailAdams
September 23rd, 2012
As we approach election day the polls will become more and more bizarre, especially the non-FOX, cable news- and newspaper-based polls. They will engage in all kinds of polling gymnastics in order to suppress reality. I think it will be more amusing than listening to a gifted baseball statistician on a slow game day. It will get so bad, the shark will be jumping over the shark.
So don’t pay attention to the fairy tales — get out there and chat up your family, friends and neighbors about why you are voting for R&R (Rich and Rare
Mr. Pinko
September 23rd, 2012
I see a lot of 2004′s and 2008′s
I don’t see a 2010 there.
AbigailAdams
September 23rd, 2012
OT: Mr. Hat, I don’t have email capability at the moment but want to submit a tip. CSPAN aired the (Democrat) Voter Focus Group from Fairfax, VA today (and the journalist’s follow-up). In a room of about a dozen D voters, they were asked a series of questions. When asked what they thought were barry’s biggest accomplishment in 4 years, a majority said “obl is dead” — quite a few more than “healthcare”. Those who were asked about what was great about obamacare couldn’t answer and a few said they couldn’t get their heads around it, but that it was good, nonetheless. A couple cited “facts” that weren’t factual.
When asked what was one of barry’s failures, one woman said “He didn’t show up after Katrina for almost 2 weeks.” No one laughed or even looked surprised by her remark or corrected her. In fact I think one other woman said she agreed.
When asked to name an attribute barry shared with a former president, one woman cited Sam Rayburn.
The mood of the room was grim. Several people said he didn’t have enough experience or that, in essence, he sold them a bill of goods. I think, given they were in a room of other people and not answering anonymously, they were loathe to hammer barry as much as they really felt like. A few of the people seemed pathetic as they all but said that his best quality was being black (white guilt was still in evidence).
These people could have been our doctors, dentists, accountants or plumbers. I think I’ll start an “Angie’s List” of conservative tradespeople, stat.
grayjohn
September 23rd, 2012
Polls are pure bullshit. They are manipulated, coerced, or just plain bias. There isn’t a polling organization out there that isn’t for sale to the most corrupt bidder. Ignore the damned polls and vote for Romney.
scr_north
September 24th, 2012
@mrPinko; I agree. While midterms aren’t the same as a Presidential election you would think they could work out a trend to apply.
Stranded in Sonoma
September 24th, 2012
Here’s what’s going to happen. Romney wins in a landslide. The economy improves to a great degree. In 2016, the pollsters will use the 2008 data and claim that Hillary is more popular than Romney.